Shifting demographics in New York State and in Westchester County – including declining birth rates – could mean a 10% enrollment drop in the City School District of New Rochelle by 2030.
That’s according to an updated long-range planning study the Western Suffolk BOCES’ Office of School Planning and Research conducted for the school district and presented at Tuesday’s Board of Education meeting.
School districts use demographic projections to help drive planning, especially in educational programming, personnel, and facilities management. The City School District of New Rochelle closely monitors New York State population trends, and the data will be used to inform the district’s five-year strategic plan, now in development.
Board of Education President Julia Muggia Ochs said, “The report helps to provide the board with valuable context and confirms local and regional demographic trends. We will use this data to inform our efforts as we embark on our strategic planning, prioritizing our commitment to excellence, innovation, and equity for every member of our school community while optimizing our school district operations in a fiscally responsible way.”
Highlights of the report (percentages rounded):
- Births in Westchester County dropped 28% between 2000 and 2020; births for New Rochelle residents dropped 8% between 2000 and 2019. This may mean fewer students enter kindergarten in the next five years, and, consequently, a smaller group progressing through each grade in subsequent years.
- The number of New Rochelle households with children under the age of 18 dropped from 36% in 2010 to 31% in 2019.
- Peak enrollment was 10,708 in 2014. The district had 701 fewer students in 2021 and is projected to have 964 fewer students by 2031.
- More New Rochelle parents are sending their children to our public schools. Currently, about 14% of local students attend private schools, vs. 18% in 2007.
- Home sales in New Rochelle are strong, up from 350 in 2010 to 618 in 2020.
- While new multi-family housing is under construction or in development in the City of New Rochelle, the impact on the district is likely to be minimal, as many units are studio or one bedroom – meaning it’s unlikely these households will include children. (Confirmation of new housing numbers is pending.)
The presentation is available on the district website, nred.org, in the Board of Education section. Click here.